Monday, July 08, 2024

India’s ‘Turbulent Neighbourhood’

Foreign Policy Research Centre Journal interview with Sanjay Upadhya


1. Why are most South Asian states sceptical of India’s primacy in their own ways?


A combination of perceptual and contextual reasons has driven most South Asian states’ scepticism of India’s regional primacy. India’s geographical and demographic heft and preponderance of diplomatic, economic and military power have contributed to an underlying sense of vulnerability among its comparatively smaller and weaker neighbours.
At a concrete level, India’s involvement in the domestic affairs of smaller South Asian states has left a legacy of profound bitterness and resentment. The content and form have differed in individual countries, ranging from outright military involvement in Sri Lanka in the name of peacekeeping to an economic blockade of Nepal to force constitutional changes. Most smaller South Asian states have experienced what they consider flagrant instances of Indian micromanagement of their internal affairs.
These nations fiercely value their independence and sovereignty. They fervently guard their right to make their own decisions based on their perceived national interest. There also is a pronounced sentiment that New Delhi is unable to recognize that India’s adversaries are not automatically adversaries of its neighbours. Broadly speaking, the smaller South Asian states urge India to cease confusing regional leadership with regional policing.

2. Besides China’s assertive behaviour, political and economic instability in “turbulent neighbourhood” is a cause for concern for India. Do you agree?

China’s growing assertiveness in South Asia in recent years has raised India’s concern owing to, among other things, the deep-running Delhi-Beijing rivalry and its regional fallout. Political and economic instability in the smaller South Asian states has compounded that concern. India feels such instability can harm its security interests and vitiate the regional environment to New Delhi’s detriment.
In response, India has employed a combination of traditional diplomatic tools and more novel initiatives. New Delhi has recently been working on integrating the region economically for mutual cooperation to foster collective self-reliance. It is doing so by, among other things, enhancing connectivity through strong physical and digital infrastructure links.
In building strong bilateral ties, India is using its cultural heritage and values to strengthen goodwill and cooperation with its neighbours. The success of such endeavours would depend critically on the extent to which the region manages to overcome the underlying history of distrust.

3. Why is India working on developing an “extended neighbourhood” that involves islands in the Indian Ocean, Gulf countries and nations in South-East Asia.? Is it for a bigger, influential and ambitious India?

With India’s great power ambitions on the ascendant, it is natural for New Delhi to find ways to project its aspirations beyond its immediate vicinity. One way of doing so is by extending what India considers to be its neighbourhood. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asserted that neighbours are not only those with whom one shares geographical boundaries but also those with whom hearts meet. Beyond such rhetorical flourish, trade, energy, security, and military imperatives underpin India’s extended neighbourhood framework. India’s contests with Pakistan and China – and their wider ramifications – have given added momentum to this approach.
As India seeks its ‘rightful place’ in its extended neighbourhood, concerns continue to be voiced. Commentators – Indian and foreign alike – have suggested that what New Delhi considers its rightful place, others can consider a hegemonistic threat. Nevertheless, the concept has become part of a new national consensus in foreign policy traversing the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress.

4. New Delhi’s ability to deal with Washington and Beijing can be significantly enhanced if India achieves greater strategic confidence in South Asian geopolitics. Do you agree?

Winning the trust of its South Asian neighbours and reflecting that confidence in its policies and pronouncements would certainly enhance India’s ability to deal with the United States and China. Mr. Modi’s Neighborhood First policy, enunciated with his rise to power in 2014, lays the basis for generating such strategic confidence. Under the policy, New Delhi has affirmed the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity; mutual respect and sensitivity; non-interference in internal affairs; shared prosperity; connectivity for regional integration; and people-to-people exchanges.
The invitations to leaders of neighboring states to Mr. Modi’s three oath-taking ceremonies are a manifestation of this approach. However, the practice has also been criticized. Smaller neighbours could perceive the invitations as a demonstration of India’s imperiousness and sense of predominance, akin to Emperor George V’s 1911 Delhi Durbar.
The smaller states assert that there are better ways to underscore good neighbourliness, such as greater Indian eagerness to resolve long-running divisive issues such as border disputes and water sharing. They continue to be concerned about Indian interference in neighbours’ domestic affairs under various guises. New Delhi needs to correct this contradiction in the neighbourhood before it can hope to play a more effective and influential role in the broader global arena.

5. The Indian government’s policy of diplomatically isolating Pakistan does not seem to be succeeding as Islamabad has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to engage Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran. How far is it true?

During the Cold War, Pakistan acquired its own strategic significance, which has not diminished substantially in the aftermath. To be sure, Pakistan faces multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism, intolerance of diversity, and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s social cohesion and stability prospects. From India’s perspective, a nuclear-armed inimical state where good-faith engagement has repeatedly failed deserves to be diplomatically isolated.
Still, Pakistan’s strategic importance persists amid new geopolitical realignments. The country is situated at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, and shares frontiers with Afghanistan, China, India, and Iran. This makes it a central actor in regional stability, trade routes, and global power dynamics, especially in security and energy.
India’s push to promote the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) over the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) as the primary neighborhood platform – in a palpable effort to shun Pakistan – has met with disgruntlement from many smaller states. Moreover, New Delhi’s effort to isolate Pakistan diplomatically has had to contend with a resurgence of Islamabad’s importance to countries such as Russia and Iran, with which New Delhi enjoys close ties.

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

Book Review: Democracy in Turns: A Political Account of Nepal

“[A] story of how Nepal’s politicians pull out all the
parliamentary stops to undermine a competent democratic
government in a country starving for modernization,” 
writes JOHN P. HUGHES in the Friends of Nepal Newsletter.

 



https://friendsofnepal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/248f52fa-1120-475b-a369-f12084d84062.pdf

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US Visit: Eye on China

By Sanjay Upadhya

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the United States has given both countries enough stimulus to hail it as a turning point in the bilateral relationship.

The agenda prioritized defense ties, technology partnerships, and India’s role in the Indo-Pacific. A formal welcome at the White House, official talks with President Joe Biden, a state dinner, and an address to a joint session of Congress were the highlights of the visit. Modi and Biden offered fulsome praise to the common interests and aspirations of the world’s two largest democracies.

Enthusiastic welcome

At a joint news conference after the formal talks on June 22, Biden said the mutual partnership is “stronger, closer and more dynamic than at any time in history.” Modi emphasized that a new chapter of strategic partnership has begun between the two countries.

Modi’s address to the joint session of Congress later that day was met with a rapturous reception, despite some Democratic lawmakers boycotting it in protest of his government’s human rights record. He told the legislators that the “new dawn” in relations would shape the destiny not only of America and India but also of the world.

Agreements reached during the visit in defense, high technology, health, environment, space, energy and visas have provided a framework for a strengthened partnership.

A vital part of the ‘Global South’, which is trying to find a new form of non-alignment amid the Russia-Ukraine war, Biden will be able to promote India as more firmly tied to the US partnership.

Modi, for his part, will show that India’s moment has arrived on the world stage. The importance of such claims will have added value in the run-up to next year’s elections in both countries.

The ‘China threat’

The joint statement did not include the ‘China threat’, but nevertheless remained the central presence during the visit. Both countries aim to prevent an Asia dominated by China or an Indo-Pacific region subject to Chinese coercion.

The US aided India in counteracting China’s control in Asia during the Bush and Obama presidencies. US-China relations worsened under the Trump administration, during which ties between Beijing and New Delhi also plummeted. The US wanted India to help contain China’s growing global power.

Modi is viewed as a prominent representative of developing countries that do not want to be forced to choose between the United States and China. His government has been criticized for its treatment of the Muslim minority and its lack of tolerance for the press and political opposition. Washington has discounted those worries and emphasized strategic cooperation with New Delhi.

Although the Indo-US partnership has grown significantly in recent years, each country has come from a different vantage point. This could make the medium- and long-term impact of Modi’s visit less rosy.

Last year, the US and India conducted joint military exercises near the disputed border with China in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. India also joined Biden’s 14-member Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Trade in goods and services between India and the US reached $190 billion last year, and the US is now India’s largest trading partner. Companies from each country have made significant investments in each other.

Last January, India and the US announced the launch of the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies to pave the way for technology value-chain partnerships leading to co-development and co-production of high-tech products and services in both countries. India could be a top pick for US government and business officials to reduce dependence on China for essential manufactured goods.

However, given China’s power and geographical proximity, New Delhi is unlikely to involve itself in any US confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its security.

India strives to preserve its bond with China despite its rivalry. Indian policymakers acknowledge the disparity between Chinese and Indian national power. New Delhi’s relative weakness forces it to refrain from provocation. Given the long border between the two countries, India knows China can threaten Indian security in various ways.

In the long run, these contradictions may become even sharper. India is a significant power in Asia for the United States because of its location along important sea lanes and its long, disputed border with China. The United States is an attractive source of advanced technology, education and investment for India.

India’s readiness to work with the US results from circumstances, not a solid conviction. India’s priority seems to be to get US help in building its own national capabilities to deal with threats independently.

Philosophically, too, relations may not be as sturdy as they appear. According to some American policymakers, US-India ties are based on democratic principles and have broad strategic importance. The world’s two largest democracies share similar global views and interests. Washington endeavors to enhance India’s position within the liberal international order and looks forward to its support in safeguarding the global system.

Alliance or…?

Although it has transformed dramatically in the last 25 years, the US-India relationship has not reached the same level as other US allies. Indian leaders have long prioritized foreign policy independence as a central feature of India’s approach to the world.

However, voices are being raised within India, saying that neutrality is no longer viable. China’s progress in South Asia and other areas is hurting India. Given its inadequate defense capabilities, New Delhi will be vulnerable to Beijing’s machinations without a reliable external partner.

But India wants to avoid becoming a junior partner of any superpower. Aspiring to be a pole in a multipolar world, New Delhi is unlikely to undermine its important ‘strategic autonomy’ in foreign policy.

India has been reluctant to use the Quad, a security alliance with Australia, Japan and the US, to counter China’s aggression. Modi and Jaishankar have been praised in India for not condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This stance of neutrality, proponents argue, serves India’s interests well.

Some argue that the era of formal alliances is about to pass and that loose partnerships will be the way of the future. Ambiguity and uncertainty can cause serious threats that should not be underestimated.

Whither Nepal?

New Delhi and Beijing are already in a geostrategic rivalry in Nepal. Contradictions between America and India would create more challenges for the country.

India’s ability to withstand Chinese pressure will define the extent of its challenge to China in Nepal. The escalation of tensions is something India wants to avoid by not seeking or receiving direct US support.

The absence of the US’s open support to India in its competition with China will result in Nepal facing difficulties on three fronts. Navigating this volatile triangle will determine Nepal’s stability and long-term interests.

https://www.bbc.com/nepali/articles/c723xj55gngo


भारतीय प्रधानमन्त्री नरेन्द्र मोदीको अमेरिका भ्रमण: चीनकै चासो

 
- सञ्जय उपाध्याय


भारतीय प्रधानमन्त्री नरेन्द्र मोदीको संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकाको राजकीय भ्रमणले दुवै देशलाई उनीहरू बीचको सम्बन्धमा कोशेढुङ्गा स्थापित भएको अर्थ्याउन पर्याप्त आधार दिएको छ।
भ्रमण एजेन्डामा रक्षा सम्बन्ध, प्रविधिमा साझेदारी र इन्डो-प्यासिफिकमा भारतको भूमिका आदिले उच्च प्राथमिकता पाएका छन्।
बिहीवार ह्वाइट हाउसमा औपचारिक स्वागत, राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडनसँग प्रत्यक्ष वार्ता, राजकीय रात्रि भोज, अमेरिकी संसद्को संयुक्त बैठकलाई सम्बोधन भ्रमणका महत्त्वपूर्ण पक्ष रहे।
मोदी र बाइडनले विश्वका दुई ठूला प्रजातन्त्रका साझा हित र आकाङ्क्षाबारे खुलेर प्रशंसा गरे।

उत्साहपूर्ण स्वागत
औपचारिक वार्तापछि संयुक्त पत्रकार सम्मेलनमा बाइडनले पारस्परिक साझेदारी "इतिहासमा कुनै पनि समयभन्दा बलियो, नजिक र अधिक गतिशील," रहेको बताए। मोदीले दुई देशबीच रणनीतिक साझेदारीको नयाँ अध्याय शुरू भएकोमा जोड दिए।
मोदी सरकारको मानवअधिकार रेकर्डको विरोध गर्दै केही डेमोक्रेटिक सांसदहरूले संयुक्त बैठकमा मोदीको सम्बोधन बहिष्कार गरे तापनि भारतीय प्रधानमन्त्रीले त्यहाँ उत्साहपूर्ण स्वागत पाए। सम्बन्धको नयाँ बिहानीले अमेरिका र भारतको मात्र होइन, विश्वको भाग्यलाई पनि आकार दिनेछ भनी उनले सांसदहरूलाई बताए।
भ्रमणका क्रममा रक्षा, उच्च प्रविधि, स्वास्थ्य, वातावरण, अन्तरिक्ष, ऊर्जा र भिसा लगायतका क्षेत्रमा भएका सम्झौताहरूले अझ बलियो साझेदारीको ढाँचा उपलब्ध गराएको छ ।
रुस-युक्रेन युद्धको बीचमा असंलग्नताको नयाँ रूप खोज्ने प्रयास गरिरहेको 'ग्लोबल साउथ'को महत्त्वपूर्ण अङ्ग भारतलाई बाइडनले अमेरिकी साझेदारीमा अझ बलियोसँग गाँसेको प्रचार गर्न सक्नेछन्।
उता विश्व मञ्चमा भारतको क्षण आइपुगेको देखाउन मोदीसँग पर्याप्त आधार हुनेछ। दुवै देशमा आगामी वर्ष चुनाव हुने सन्दर्भमा यस्ता दाबीको महत्त्व बेग्लै हुनेछ।

‘चिनियाँ खतरा’ को चर्चा
‘चिनियाँ खतरा’ प्रत्यक्षरूपमा संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा समाविष्ट छैन, तर भ्रमणभरि चीन सान्दर्भिक रहेको थियो। वाशिङ्टन र नयाँ दिल्लीले बेइजिङको बढ्दो विश्वव्यापी महत्त्वाकाङ्क्षाहरूको सामना गर्ने तरिकाहरू खोज्दै गर्दा यो भ्रमण भएको छ। ती दुवै देशले चीनको प्रभुत्वमा रहेको एशिया वा चिनियाँ जबरजस्तीको अधीनमा रहेको इन्डो-प्यासिफिक क्षेत्र नहोस् भन्ने उद्देश्य राख्छन्।
जर्ज बुश र बाराक ओबामा प्रशासनका समयमा संयुक्त राज्यले एशियामा चीनलाई प्रभुत्व जमाउनबाट रोक्न भारतको शक्ति निर्माण गर्न मद्दत पुर्‍याउनेतर्फ ध्यान केन्द्रित गर्‍यो।
डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प प्रशासनको समयमा अमेरिका-चीन सम्बन्ध बिग्रियो, जुन अवधिमा बेइजिङ र नयाँ दिल्ली बीचको सम्बन्धमा पनि गिरावट आएको थियो। त्यसपछि संयुक्त राज्यले चीनको बढ्दो शक्तिलाई नियन्त्रणमा राख्न भारतलाई अझ ठूलो सैन्य भूमिकातर्फ लैजाने अपेक्षा साथ सहयोग गर्न थाल्यो।
मोदीलाई विकासोन्मुख देशहरूको आवाजको रूपमा लिइन्छ जुन संयुक्त राज्य र चीनको बीचमा छनोट गर्न बाध्य हुन चाहँदैनन्।
उनी आफ्नो सरकारको मुस्लिम अल्पसङ्ख्यक आबादीप्रतिको व्यवहार र प्रेस तथा राजनीतिक प्रतिपक्षमाथिको अनुदारताका कारण आलोचनाको विषय पनि हुन्। वाशिङटनले ती चिन्ताहरूलाई पन्छाएर नयाँ दिल्लीसँगको रणनीतिक सहयोगलाई महत्त्व दिएको प्रस्टै छ।
भारत-अमेरिकी साझेदारी हालैका वर्षहरूमा उल्लेखनीय रूपमा बढेको भए पनि, प्रत्येक देश यसतर्फ फरक बिन्दुबाट आएका छन्। त्यो तथ्यले मोदीको भ्रमणको मध्यम र दीर्घकालीन प्रभावलाई कम अनुकूल बनाउन सक्नेछ।
भलै गत वर्ष अमेरिका र भारतले भारतको उत्तराखण्ड राज्यमा चीनसँगको विवादित सिमाना नजिकै संयुक्त सैन्य अभ्यास गरेका थिए।
भारत पनि बाइडनको १४ सदस्यीय इन्डो-प्यासिफिक इकोनोमिक फ्रेमवर्कमा सामेल भयो। भारत र अमेरिकाबीचको वस्तु तथा सेवाको व्यापार गत वर्ष १९० अर्ब डलर पुगेको थियो र अमेरिका अहिले भारतको सबैभन्दा ठूलो व्यापारिक साझेदार हो। दुई देशका कम्पनीहरूले एक अर्कामा महत्त्वपूर्ण लगानी गरेका छन्।
गत ज्यानुअरीमा भारत र अमेरिका दुवै देशहरूमा उच्च प्रविधि उत्पादन र सेवाहरूको सह-विकास र सह-उत्पादनमा नेतृत्व गर्ने टेक्नोलोजी मूल्य-शृङ्खला साझेदारीको लागि मार्ग प्रशस्त गर्न क्रिटिकल एन्ड इमर्जिङ टेक्नोलोजीहरूमा यूएस-भारत पहल (आईसीईटी) को सुरुवातको घोषणा गरियो।
अमेरिकी सरकारी एवं व्यापारिक अधिकारीहरूले प्रमुख उत्पादित वस्तुहरूको आपूर्तिका लागि चीनमाथिको अमेरिकी निर्भरता कम गर्न खोज्दा भारत प्रमुख विकल्प हुन सक्छ।
तथापि चीनको शक्ति र त्यसको भौगोलिक निकटतालाई ध्यानमा राख्दै, नयाँ दिल्लीले बेइजिङसँगको कुनै पनि अमेरिकी टकराबमा आफूलाई संलग्न गराउने सम्भावना छैन जसले आफ्नो सुरक्षालाई प्रत्यक्ष रूपमा खतरामा पार्दैन।

भारतको सबैभन्दा खतरनाक प्रतिद्वन्द्वीलाई कस्तो सन्देश
चीन भारतको सबैभन्दा खतरनाक प्रतिद्वन्द्वी बनेको भएता पनि, नयाँ दिल्ली अझै पनि बेइजिङसँग स्थायी सम्बन्ध तोड्ने कुनै पनि काम नगर्न खोज्छ।
भारतीय नीति निर्माताहरूले चिनियाँ र भारतीय राष्ट्रिय शक्तिबीचको असमानतालाई स्वीकार गर्छन्।
नयाँ दिल्लीको सापेक्षिक कमजोरीले बेइजिङलाई उक्साउनबाट जोगिन बाध्य बनाउँछ।
दुई देशको लामो सीमालाई हेर्दा चीनले विभिन्न तरिकाले भारतीय सुरक्षालाई खतरामा पार्न सक्छ भन्ने कुरा भारतलाई थाहा छ।
दीर्घकालीन रूपमा यी विरोधाभासहरू अझ कडा हुन सक्छन्। संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकाको लागि, भारत एशियामा एक विशाल, निर्णायक शक्ति हो जुन महत्त्वपूर्ण समुद्री मार्गहरूमा बस्छ र चीनसँग लामो, विवादित भूमि सीमा साझा गर्दछ।
भारतको लागि संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका उन्नत प्रविधि, शिक्षा र लगानीको आकर्षक स्रोत हो।
भारतको अमेरिकासँग काम गर्ने इच्छा परिस्थितिबाट जन्मेको हो, विश्वासबाट होइन। स्वतन्त्र रूपमा खतराहरूसँग सामना गर्न आफ्नै राष्ट्रिय क्षमताहरू निर्माण गर्न अमेरिकी सहयोग प्राप्त गर्नु भारतको प्राथमिकता रहेको देखिन्छ।
सम्बन्धको सैद्धान्तिक आधार पनि देखिएको जस्तो दरिलो नहुन सक्छ।
कति अमेरिकी नीति-निर्माताहरूको विचारमा साझा लोकतान्त्रिक सिद्धान्तहरूका आधारमा व्यापक रणनीतिक महत्त्वसहितको स्थायी अमेरिका-भारत सम्बन्धको भविष्य उज्ज्वल रहेको छ।विश्वका दुई ठूला लोकतन्त्रबीच समान विश्वव्यापी दृष्टिकोण र चासोहरू छन्।
तदनुसार, वाशिङटनले उदार अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय व्यवस्थाभित्र भारतको अडानलाई बलियो बनाउन खोजेको छ र आवश्यक पर्दा विश्व प्रणालीको रक्षार्थ उसको योगदान खोजेको छ।

गठबन्धन बन्न लागेको हो?
निश्चय पनि अमेरिका-भारत सम्बन्धमा विगत चौथाइ शताब्दीमा व्यापक परिवर्तन भएको छ, तर त्यो परिवर्तनले अन्य निकटतम अमेरिकी गठबन्धनहरू जस्तै साझेदारी प्रदान गरेको छैन।
भारतीय नेताहरूले लामो समयदेखि विदेश नीति स्वतन्त्रतालाई विश्वमा भारतको दृष्टिकोणको केन्द्रीय विशेषताको रूपमा प्राथमिकता दिएका छन्।
हुन त तटस्थता अब व्यवहार्य विकल्प नरहेको भन्दै भारत भित्रै आवाज बढिरहेको छ ।
यो दृष्टिकोण अनुसार दक्षिण एसिया र अन्य क्षेत्रमा चीनको राजनीतिक र आर्थिक प्रगतिले भारतको हितलाई कमजोर बनाउँछ।
भारतलाई खुफिया जानकारी आदान-प्रदान गरेर मद्दत गर्न सक्ने भरपर्दो बाह्य साझेदार बिना आफ्नो अपर्याप्त प्रतिरक्षा क्षमता माझ नयाँ दिल्ली बेइजिङको षड्यन्त्रको चपेटामा पर्न सक्नेछ।
तर भारत कुनै पनि महाशक्तिको कनिष्ठ साझेदार बन्नबाट जोगिन चाहन्छ। बहु ध्रुवीय संसारमा आफैँमा एक ध्रुव बन्न चाहने नयाँ दिल्लीले विदेश नीतिमा आफ्नो महत्त्वपूर्ण 'रणनीतिक स्वायत्तता' लाई कमजोर पार्ने सम्भावना देखिँदैन।
चीनसँगको विवादित सीमामा भएका झडपको बाबजुद, भारतले अस्ट्रेलिया, जापान र संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकासँगको आफ्नो सुरक्षा साझेदारी — जसलाई क्वाड भनिन्छ — लाई चीन विरुद्धमा अँगाल्न आनाकानी गरेको छ ।
युक्रेनमा रुसी आक्रमणको निन्दा गर्न कडा इन्कार गरेकोमा मोदी र उनका विदेशमन्त्री सुब्रह्मण्यम जयशंकर दुवैको भारतभित्र प्रशंसा गरिएको छ। तटस्थताको यो अडान, उनीहरूले तर्क गर्ने गरेका छन्, भारतको हितलाई राम्रोसँग सेवा गर्दछ।
त्यसो त कतिले औपचारिक गठबन्धनको जमाना जान लागेको एवं खुकुलो साझेदारी नै भविष्यको बाटो रहने बताउँछन्। तर त्यसमा अस्पष्टता र अनिश्चितताको वर्चस्व रहने खतरा नकार्न सकिँदैन।

नेपाललाई कस्ता चुनौती
नेपालमा नयाँ दिल्ली र बेइजिङ पहिले नै भू-रणनीतिक प्रतिद्वन्द्वमा फसेका छन्।
अमेरिका र भारतबीच सहकार्यभन्दा विरोधाभास रहेमा नेपालले थप चुनौतीहरूको सामना गर्नुपर्नेछ।
भारतले नेपालमा चीनलाई उसले चीनको दबाबको सामना गर्न सक्ने ठाउँसम्म मात्रै चुनौती दिनेछ। त्यो प्रयासमा अमेरिकी सहयोग खोज्दा वा पाउँदा भारतले नचाहेको स्तरमा तनाव बढाउन सक्छ।
चीनसँगको प्रतिस्पर्धामा अमेरिका भारतको पक्षमा खुलेर नआउँदाको अवस्थामा नेपालले तीन मोर्चामा कठिनाइको सामना गर्नु पर्ने हुनेछ।
यो अस्थिर त्रिभुज माझ नेपालले आफूलाई कति राम्रोसँग डोर्‍याउन सक्छ त्यसले राष्ट्रिय स्थायित्व एवं दीर्घकालीन हित निर्धारण गर्नेछ।

Saturday, June 17, 2023

Excerpts: ‘Democracy in Turns: A Political Account of Nepal’




Excerpts from the last chapter of Sanjay Upadhya’s new book Democracy in Turns: A Political Account of Nepal which looks back at the country's struggle to construct a new democratic identity under 7 constitutions in 7 decades. 

https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-story-so-far


















Thursday, June 08, 2023

प्रचण्डको भ्रमणपछि नेपाल-भारत सम्बन्धमा अविश्वास बढ्यो कि घट्यो?

‘द राज लिभ्स: इण्डिया इन नेपाल’ पुस्तकका लेखक सञ्जय उपाध्यायले प्रधानमन्त्रीले जटिल सीमा विवादबारेको गतिरोध फुकाउने प्रयास गरेको हुनसक्ने भएपनि त्यसले गम्भीर प्रश्नहरू उब्जाएको बताए।
उनी भन्छन्, “प्रधानमन्त्रीले यसबारेमा नेपालीहरूलाई बहस गर्ने मौका नदिईकनै आफ्नो धारणा राखे। यति दीर्घकालीन महत्त्वको विषयमा जुन हल्का तरिकाले अघि बढ्ने प्रयास प्रधानमन्त्रीले गरे यसले उनको कूटनीतिक सामर्थ्यमा प्रश्नहरू खडा गरेको छ।”
[प्रबुद्ध समूहको] प्रतिवेदनलाई गरिएको उपेक्षालाई एउटा दृष्टान्तको रूपमा प्रस्तुत गर्दै लेखक उपाध्यायले थपे, “यो भ्रमणले जबाफ दिनुभन्दा धेरै प्रश्नहरू खडा गरेकाले दुईपक्षीय सम्बन्धमा आपसी अविश्वास र आशङ्का निरन्तर व्याप्त रहेको छ। प्रबुद्ध समूहको प्रतिवेदनलाई पूर्ण रूपमा उपेक्षा गरिनुबाट ती प्रश्नहरू खतरनाक रूपमा प्रकट भएका छन्। एकदमै धार्मिक रङ्ग दिइएको हाम्रा माओवादी केन्द्रका नेताको उज्जैनस्थित एउटा मन्दिरको भ्रमणले उनको वैचारिक र राजनीतिक कदलाई थप कमजोर बनाएको छ।”
उज्जैनको महाकालेश्वर मन्दिर भ्रमण गर्ने आफ्नो निर्णयको बचाउ गर्दै उनले निम्तालुको चाहना र आफ्नो पनि इच्छामा उक्त धार्मिक स्थलको भ्रमण भएको उल्लेख गरेका थिए।
उपाध्याय भन्छन्, “[आफ्ना समकक्षी मोदीसँग तीन पटक एक्लै एक्लै] छलफलमा उठेका कुराको गोप्यता र त्यसलाई महत्त्व दिएर प्रस्तुत गर्ने हाम्रा प्रधानमन्त्रीको तत्परताले सम्झौता र सहमतिहरूमाथि नकारात्मक प्रभाव पारिदिएको छ। पुराना जटिलताहरू हल नगरी नयाँ खाका तय गर्नु बुद्धिमत्तापूर्ण मार्ग होइन।”
विभिन्न सम्झौतासहितलाई देखाएर भ्रमण सफल भएको निष्कर्ष सुनाउने तत्परता देखाउनु एउटा कुरा भएपनि नेपाल भारत सम्बन्धमा यस्ता प्रतिकात्मक परिस्थितिहरूभन्दा ठोस परिणाम आवश्यक भएको उनले सुनाए।
उपाध्याय बदलिँदो क्षेत्रीय, रणनीतिक र सुरक्षा वातावरणका माझ पश्चिमा शक्तिहरूको समर्थनमा भारतले 'अनुचित' चिनियाँ प्रभाव नेपालमा कमजोर बनाउने रणनीति लिएको बताउँछन्।
उनले भने, "यो अवधारणाको समस्या भनेको हो अरूले अनुचित ठानेको कुरा नेपालको दृष्टिकोणमा सधैँ त्यस्तो नहुन सक्छ। नेपालका दुई विशाल छिमेकीमध्ये चीन एउटा हो र नेपालले सम्भव भएसम्म आपसी लाभ हुने गरी ऊसँग गहिरो सम्बन्ध राख्न चाहन्छ।"
उपाध्यायले भारतीय र पश्चिमा नीतिगत मञ्चहरूका माध्यमबाट नेपाललाई कुनै पनि हिसाबले संस्थागत र स्वायत्त रूपमा निर्णय गर्नबाट वञ्चित गर्नु क्षेत्रीय शान्ति र स्थिरताका निम्ति उपयुक्त नहुने चेतावनी दिए।
उनले थपे, "पश्चिमासँगको भारतको निकटता र नेपाललाई दक्षिण एशियासँग जोड्ने पुलका रूपमा जोड दिएर प्रस्तुत गर्ने चिनियाँ धारणाले नेपालका लागि सहज समय नरहेको देखिन्छ। यस्ता विशाल चुनौतीमाझ हाम्रो राजनीतिक नेतृत्वबाट देखाइनुपर्ने संवेदनशीलता प्रधानमन्त्री प्रचण्डको भारत भ्रमणमा देखिएन।"